Monday, April 20, 2009

For better or worse - Risk aversion, lack of confidence, undermine economy

I have heard that the worst is over, but I am not convinced. The magnitude of risk aversion which directs the "prudent minds" to maintain cash holdings, liquidate assets, and position their fate in fiat currency is officially as irrational as buying stocks in 1998, leveraging your stock gains to buy a home you can't afford, and then taking loans collateralized against inflated house prices to cover the lost income from your failing mutual fund.

If you want your dollar to go up, build up the American worker and employment base. Otherwise, the dollar may be bouncing strong against the Euro but it will be hammered against gold. This means that, as it has always been, money must be spent for money to be made. Costs can only be cut so deep before you kill the patient. The economy is a living, breathing, organism because it is made up of living, breathing, organisms.

The degree of risk aversion and lack of confidence in our economy, and around the world, is our greatest crisis. Now, to be clear, I am not suggesting that anyone should ignore risk analysis or falsify their internal confidence checks. There are certain truths that hold true, enabling us to build confidence, invest money, and avoid risk. (1) Family and friends. Help out your family and friends, because everyone is stressed. If you have a job, help family and friends find one too. It will cost you less than paying for them, and build every one's confidence at the same time. (2) Greed will make you a target. Nobody likes greedy people, but everyone knows they have something worth taking. (3) Patience pays off faster and greater than frustration, speedy actions, and/or hustling. Business people, and people in general, trust patience. Patient people have clarity, and are respectful.

I guess this post was more of an editorial than I thought it would be, but it is still my contention that fear resulting from an over-emphasis on risk aversion due to a lack of confidence is the most major challenge our economy faces.

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